Sunday, August 22, 2010

Why Beck needs the economy to crash

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On his August 16th edition of his Fox show, Glenn Beck introduced his viewers to the "Hindenburg Oman." His dramatic hyperbole is worth viewing:

No fear-mongering here?

The Review previously addressed Beck's claim that the President should defer to the will of the majority of the people regarding the building of the mosque in lower Manhattan. See: "Is Beck encouraging his viewers to stay home on election day?"

Regarding the Hindenburg Oman, Beck basically described what was not confirmed on August 12th, but the Hindenburg Oman was indeed confirmed after his August 16th show on the 19th. He conveyed this market condition fairly accurately even if he left out the "boring" technical details. Since The Glenn Beck Review does not under-estimate the intelligence of its readers, following are the technical analysis of a Hindenburg Oman. It involves four criteria:
  1. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows are both greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day. Based on approximately 3100 NYSE issues, the 2.2% threshold is 69.
  2. The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.
  4. New 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (though new 52 Week Lows may be more than double new Highs).
When The Wall Street Journal asked the Oman creator, Jim Miekka, whether investors should bail out of the market now, he told them, "I'll be dancing close to the door." That is not what one takes away from Beck in the video above.

Other market considerations that are not "technical" like the four criteria above are called the "fundamentals." What are the actual conditions of the market place? According to one market analyst, there are 10 reasons to stay in the market at this point. Rather than list them here, they can be found at "10 Reasons Why We Won't Crash."

Why would Beck want to scare his viewers out of the stock market? Consider what Beck said on his radio program: "Goldline...I've purchased gold since after 9-11 because I thought, ut oh, this isn't good. I realized on September 11th how fragile our country really is. How fragile things are, how things could change at the drop of a hat. So I started buying gold. I buy gold the crazy way. I buy gold coins."(1) Here is another recording of Beck from his radio program shilling for gold as a hedge against inflation:

Reliable investment advice?

It could be argued by Beck's supporters that he's just doing his job to warn his viewers of a possible drop in the stock market. That is what they see and hear. It's called biased assimilation.(2) They hear from Beck what they want to hear, and critics are derided as "haters." This is the nature of human perception in the new world of multiple truths. No amount of logic or analysis can penetrate their emotional attachment to Mr. Beck. That doesn't make critical interpretation of Beck's fear mongering any less useful.

Gold increases in value as people bail out of the stock market during declines. If Beck's viewers pull out of the stock market, that would have a negative impact on stock prices, and Beck's gold coin collection would go up in value. If there is no economic collapse that Beck's been predicting for the last year, Beck stands to lose a sum of money since the coins he buys are over priced to begin with. (That's why it's a "crazy" idea as Beck suggests.) In summary, taking advice from Beck and reacting emotionally to his presentation of the Hindenburg Oman would help drive the stock market down, drive the price of gold up and add value to Beck's personal wealth. Beck wins; the country would suffer. How much more patriotic can one man be? In his campaign for the President in 2008, John McCain's slogan was "country first." In his campaign against the stock market, Beck's slogan implicitly is "Beck first." 

Before more people start swallowing Beck's nonsense, get involved

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(1)  Transcribed from Countdown with Keith Olbermann on August 17th.
(2)  True Enough: Learning to Live in a Post-Fact Society, Farhad Manjoo (Hoboken, Wiley, 2008) p. 150.


Marlon said...

I hope the global economy will continue to rise and the stock market will become stronger than before.

binary options

The Glenn Beck Review said...

Marlon, I was just commenting on Facebook, if the R's stop the debt ceiling from extending, the world could go back into recession or even depression. If Obama strikes a deal that cuts thousands of jobs out of the economy when private companies are not hiring, then that will slow the already sluggish recovery even more.

Obama has allowed the right to take control of the debate and priority for the gov't from jobs to debt. If Paul Ryan's plan can rationalize greater deficits in the short run, then Obama has to make the case that deficits are needed now to boost the economy.

BTW, this was another bit of fear-mongering on Beck's part that did not pan out.